← 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
decks
2
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-7-0
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.1%
avg ELO -4.0 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1220
· median 1220
· range 1201–1238
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1225
Q3 1387
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 9.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.3% | +12.1 |
| Water Genbu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
